RTH

I was going through some ETF's and found this chart very interesting. The pattern looks like a bull flag.  But volume is not supporting higher prices. 

Funny

IYR

IYR is possibly the ugliest theta trade I have on. Today was the first day I had a small profit. The chart looks very attractive in selling put spreads or buying ITM diagonal spreads, but I have on a long Vega double calendar. The last few days volatility levels have fallen and that has affected my profits because of my long Vega. I started this trade as a single calendar 30 strike call with May and June. I had to adjust this trade yesterday, in doing so I neutralize my deltas. 

$SPX

Close but no cigar!

IWM SPY

I added two new calendars to replace the few I took off. They both are double calendars same strike. 

Danny MacAskill

Closed Positions

I closed out some positions today with some small profits.  Today the magic 880 level was hit and by most traders that level test is a turning point for the bears to take control. I am NOT in that camp, I'm in the camp of reason and reality. The reason we hit the 880 level is because of the FOMC meeting today and the reality is we have a higher probability of staying in a range. That range is 810-940 on the SP's, between now and expiry. This range is identified by the probability cone above.  Now my idea of closing some positions is so I could reposition myself if the top side of that range is met.(by OPEX) If it is not met I will simply apply the same positions I had on.  The risk was to great for me to keep my original positions on, so I had to neutralize some deltas. 

Snipers

Adjustments

Above is the adjustment for the trade I currently have on the IWM.
The current calendar on the IWM.
Above is the $RUT adjustment I made this morning. 

I had to make an adjustment on my $RUT position. 15 days left in this cycle and I feel more comfortable doing the adjustment today then I would have two weeks ago.  I also have an IWM calendar on that might meet my cleaver if this rally starts to push equity higher. VIX is also dropping down 2.08 at 35.87. Vol levels continue to drop and the market is being very resilient to any down side pressure. 

$VIX

The spread trading community is looking for clues as to which way we move next (besides sideways). Here is a quick look at the VIX. To have a pull back we need to have a break of the 40 level. 

Obama

Weekly position recap

These are a few of my positions for the month of May. Currently we have 16 days till expriy. 

Marley

GS

High probability credit spreads will be my focus for the next couple days. The first idea is a GS iron condor idea. 

DJX

I also like this idea on $DJX. $DJX double calendar idea. I'm going to keep a close watch on volatility as a clue to what will happen next. 

XLE

My credit spreads are getting set this week via short verticals and iron condors. I'm also looking for some more calendar, double calendar or butterfly ideas. Tonight I can across a double calendar on XLE. XLE double calendar idea. Depending on how the open is the strikes could change. 

$RUT $OEX

I have two trades I would like to highlight, the first is $OEX and the second is $RUT.  Both of these trades are calendars.  The $RUT was set on the 9th of April and the $OEX was set on the 14th of April.  At this point both trades will be kept as is with no adjustments. 

SPX

Market has moved side ways for the last two weeks. Which is a good thing for spread traders, but could this side ways action be signaling a short term top?  My bet is to watch volatility, if volatility starts to move higher we could test the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 776.82.  If volatility continues to move lower 900 could be doable. 

RUT

This time of the month I look to set credit spreads, either short verticals or iron condors. I already have some short verticals on $RUT but I'm almost at max profit so I'm looking to set some more. This is a $RUT iron condor idea.  

Earth

EEM

Last nights idea on EEM changed a bit. Instead of the 28 double calendars, I got filled with the 27 double calendar this morning.  The markets are trading down today, which is helping out my short deltas.  May's expiration is only 17 days away and everything is looking good. 

EEM

Almost done setting income spreads for May but I have a few more ideas.  EEM double calendar idea. 

The market has continued to move higher over the last couple weeks and my spreads are starting to become more and more delta negative. That is my main concern right now, but I have to manage my deltas with either adjustments or close out what I have with a small profit. I made a few adjustments last week on GLD, GDX, IYR and USO.  The rest of my spreads are dead center in between my break evens. 

AAPL

This is an AAPL butterfly idea and buy write idea. AAPL reported earnings yesterday after the bell.  Now that earnings are out of the way I feel better working strategies with AAPL.

The Whipsaw Song

S&P

My short term out look on the market. SP's to 815 or so then a bounce to the 860's. Anything after that is to hard for ANYONE to predict. If we break the 815 level I think we will go to the 775 level which is the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level.

IYR

I got filled this morning on my IYR calendar idea. 

USO, MNX, IYR

I am in the process of adding more spreads this week. I did not get filled on most of my orders due to the 35 point pull back in the SP's today. The $VIX also rallied hard today almost breaking the 40 level, up 5.25. With the $VIX moving up hard and the SP's moving down hard tells me that investors are not ready for this market to go higher. 

New MNX iron condor.

New IYR calendar idea.

New USO Butterfly.

SPX

I got filled this morning on a SPX butterfly. Today I think is the start to the pull back everyone has been calling for, back to maybe even the 776.82 level which is the 61.8% Fibonacci level. 

AXP

Possibly a buy write on AXP, American Express reports earning this Thursday. I might wait for after they release there earnings, but the premiums are juicy at this point. AXP buy write idea for May.

SPX

We have 28 more days till May's expiration and I am still looking to add some calendars, butterflies and verticals. Right now I'm getting all my butterfly ideas on the table, so I can sort throw them and decide on my top three.  SPX 60 point wide butterfly idea for May. 

GDX

Going throw more butterfly candidates tonight and came across a great looking 5 point wide GDX butterfly. ROI and risk to reward fit my criteria. Chart also looks bullish as a counter trend rally. 

TBT

Butterfly trade idea on TBT.

IWM

Market is still rocking higher, which makes me more and more suspicious of some sort of counter trend rally. IWM had an adjustment today. 

FSLR

Can across this iron condor today, I like the risk to reward and ROI. The chart also looks good. 

SPY

I got filled on a new position this morning.  Adjustments on this trade make the risk to reward and ROI very attractive. 

OPEX Friday

I have been adding calendars this week and they all are still in very good shape. I made one adjustment on my $RUT calendar. Everything else is in great shape.