Work Music....

SP's

My expectation for the S&P 500 in the near term is to retest the 38.2% at 845.14 or so.

Economic Expectations

Positions

Below are just a few of my position on for July.

Below are some of the buy writes I currently have on.

These are just a few of my positions that are on for July.

Beta Weighted

This is the first month I didn't set any calendar spreads. I only set credit spreads, debit spreads and buy writes.

Buy Write Ideas

/NQ

This is my Nasdaq short term prediction.

$RUT

$RUT ITM call vertical idea.

ICE

Iron Condor on ICE.

GS

GS ITM call vertical.

SP's

This month I have not posted all my trades, but I can say that things are good. I have a couple position hedges on that might not look good today. I'm short SPY with a short put and I'm long SRS. As for normal positions, buy writes on GS, AAPL and EDC. Long vertical; GS, BIDU, MA, GLD and RUT.

SP's have been tricky in picking short term moves. Side ways to no where is good for me, but the whip saw is where things can go from good to uncomfortable. For now I will continue to do what works for me and stay way from things that don't.

The chart above is of the $SPX. 900-915 in my opinion is a great place to get short. I will get short in that area (hedged of course) in small baby steps. One thing that needs to happen before we go lower is the $VIX needs to spike above 33, close and stay at or above 33 for a big break in the market to happen.

SPY

SPY a couple post ago I said I had a target of 82. Here is my position.

Da Bears

I was going through some charts and I am becoming more and more bearish. The chart above is the SPY on a weekly basis. I have set my target @ 82.00.

MA

This is my second MA ITM vertical.

AAPL

High probability buy write on AAPL. I'm expecting an over all market pull back but I would not be surprised to see us higher by July's expiration.

POT

Buy write on POT.

KO

50% retracement.

EXPO Week Has Arrived

Friday I set a beautiful butterfly and this morning I'm looking to buy some volatility. The sector that I feel is going to move is the banking sector. My first trade is on JPM. If we do not move today or tomorrow I will be adjusting this trade.

Weekly Wrap Up

I exited some position Wednesday and Thurday. I don't have much left just some credit spreads, buy writes and a nice butterfly spread on the $SPX.

GLD

New small position on GLD.

GS

Its buy write time once again. Here is my idea on GS.

GLD

Just an idea.

The book

$RUT

$RUT is pushing up up againts resistance.

$RUT

I might adjust my $RUT calendar. And I saw this and had to laugh.

Positions

We will have a hard time breaking the 515 level in the next week and a half. This position is short Vega and over the last two months volatility has been trending lower. But recently the $RUT has had a pop in vol levels. Then best scenario for this trade is that we stay in the range that we have been in or pop higher. One very nice thing about this trade is that if I'm wrong I can fix it, lower my break even and add more positive theta. If you look in the battle plan on the right side bar you will see an end of month butterfly. I'm just setting one side before the other.

The trade below shows my bullishness on the small cap stocks. But I remain bearish long term.

I haven't put any new positions on but we are getting close to expiration. I wanted to share my beta and some ideas.

Vertical to Vertical

I have had some requests to explain a vertical to a butterfly trade. First decide if your bullish or bearish on the underlying. After you pick and lets say you're bullish you would buy a call vertical in the money. Now an important thing to remember is that the strikes should be set as if you were going to set one side of the butterfly. If your bullish thoughts are current great, but if not you would then buy a put vertical. That would lower your call break even and turn your trade in to a butterfly. One more thing to think about is if you want a traditional butterfly or a iron condor looking butterfly. Before trying this trade put in some time to learn the risks.

GLD DBA

I'm still bullish on GLD. DBA also looks pretty good.

10 Year Treasury Note

Big move in rates today, 3.86%. If we get above 4% or 40 spot on the $TNX that will be bad for the equity markets. 

Weekly Wrap Up

Today was very volatile and some what boring. After the non-farm payroll came out the action started and stopped just as fast. I add a few new positions today that I will highlight this weekend. Until then enjoy your weekend.

FED Balance Sheet

FED BALANCE SHEET. CLICK HERE

AAPL

OK I think its time, its buy write time.....Apple has hit in my opinion major resistance and call premiums are ripe to sell. 

GS

I might add another buy write to this position. Break out on GS today. 

New Position

I have a new position in MA a long July vertical. 

Oil

Goldman Sachs reported a new target for crude at $85 a barrel before year end.  I remember Goldman said oil was going to $200 last year. 

SP's

The picture above has nothing to do with the trade, just a cool burger joint. (Wind Power)


$SPX diagonal idea. Break even price is at the resistance point. A break of the resistance the trade will be taken off or adjusted.