Monthly Madness!!

The monthlies still look good, in May I made mention of this HERE. Long term target would the the red circle highlighted on the chart 1075-1100 zone. I think it will take some time to get there, but between now and then bulls and bears will have plenty of opportunities to make money.

Managed Account

Another 2% for my investors. With the weakness in the market this morning I'm selling $RUT put spreads. I will also be on vacation starting tomorrow till Sunday, you might not hear much from me, but I will try to update you on any new trades. Have a good week and good trades.

Florida....

$RUT

So far so good this beautiful Colorado morning. My thoughts last week are starting to play out, and I think the $RUT hit a short term top. The range for the $RUT is big, between 525 and 575 is where I think we could be around for the coming weeks/months.

An hour and a half into the trading day the market internals don't look all that bearish.

New trades for today are still in the works, I will keep you posted on my fills.

Pair Ideas

Tonight its all about the pair. These are just a few of my ideas, these are the ones that are on my current watch list of trades. As I place these trades, I will keep you updated here or on my twitter page.

Earnings Update

Have a good weekend everyone.

Turning Point?

Yesterday was a very exciting day for the bulls, I bet they loved watching the bears capitulate. Today the market internals look soft and that is what I expected to see after the market went parabolic, people are protecting profits or scaling out of winning positions. Today I'm not adding or adjusting any of my positions. I think we will remain soft till mid next week, then we will test 1000. I am not a bull at this point, I want to see the action at or around 1000 to take a stance on market direction. So for now I will continue to be theta positive and market neutral.

Above is a chart of the cubes. To be realistic I think that this could pull back to about the 37 level to make a higher low. Things just don't go straight up or straight down.

Steel Pulse

FDX-UPS

A new trade idea via a few posts ago. Any weakness in this pair I will be a buyer of this spread. My idea price to get in would be around 9.75-10.00.

New Trades

Today I set a slightly bearish calendar spread in the QQQQ. I'm long volatility and I think volatility levels are extremely low right now. The chart above is of the $VIX, my thinking is that vol levels will rise sharply in any minor or major pull back we get. I also set a GS buy write today and just my luck I get it when GS was down about .70.

Pairs Trade

I hedge everything that I do, I hate unlimited risk. Pair trading is something that I am familiar with but have not mastered yet. I do have one pair trade on right now and its doing pretty well, I'm long GLD and short SLV. I have had this trade on for about two weeks.

Think or Swim makes it very easy to pair trade. The chart above is GLD-SLV.

Over the next couple weeks I will be posting trade ideas.

SPY

Well so much for my thoughts on market weakness at resistance. Volume is very weak today, and that makes me think that we will be in a very tight range the rest of the week. My prediction for the coming week is a small pull back to the 925-930 area before we head higher.

Today I added some more $RUT bull put spreads. I currently still have my small SSO short that I will hold till we have a close above 960.

Credit Ideas

Marley

WOW

Today was a very interesting day, up then down then up again. The bulls are in total control right now. Today I set a beautiful credit spread on $SPX, I will continue to add to this position over the next week or so.

Iron Condor Idea

Bullish Ideas

1. DBC has been consolidating for about a week and today we are starting to break out.

2. OIH has had some good price action lately and I would bet that this stock could get back to 110.

SSO

I have a small short position on SSO, my short term target is the $25 area.

SPY

I'm trying to take advantage of the put premiums before they dry up. ROI 4.2%.

New Trade

$SPX is back up against the 950 resistance level, its going to be a struggle by the bulls and bears to take control of this market. I think that selling pressure will hit the market the next few days based on the range everyone thinks we are in, and will stay in all summer. The market has attempted to cross the 950 level several times this year with no luck. The only reason I see is if earnings continue to come in like they have, we might just have a chance to break this level.

CAT

Busy Night

I wanted to start the blog off this evening with my beta weighted income portfolio. Today I took profits on my GS long vertical up 7%. For the rest of my positions I will let them expire with positive theta. This week I will also be setting up my buy write positions and I will keep you posted on new trades for the month of Aug.

The chart below is of the SPY. The two red lines on the chart are support points that are very resilient and important to the bulls. A break of the two red lines would make me believe we were going to test the 38.2% at 84.31. It seems that we are getting a bounce off the 88.00/200 dma and could possibly see 91.50 as our next resistance point. That said we should be in this range through OPEX.

Below is one of my managed accounts that I trade for one of my investors, 2.5% for the month of July.

Managed Account

Beta Weighted

I took more profits yesterday, and this is the income portfolio as of Monday. Have a great weekend everyone, I'm headed to the woods to camp and do some fishing.

Ideas

Its about that time for Aug buy writes. July buy writes were great except for POT, news related casualty. I will start setting buy writes all next week.

First idea GS.

Camping

I thought I would keep you posted on one of my favorite things to do. Headed up for the weekend.

$SPX

Well today is the day, if your a technician you just got short this market. My short term target is $845, as of now I'm long SRS and short DIA, /TF and SPY. I still have long positions on that will be taken from me next week. OPEX is right around the corner and I have a lot of things that will expire worthless. Some of my positive theta trades are not looking good today, but I have probability on my side.

Dow

I normally don't care or even follow the Dow, but I decided to take a look and have a short term prediction for the DJ.

Round numbers in trading are very important, but this round number on the DJ will break. 38.2% $7956.77 is where i think we will test by or before the August EXPO. Over a longer term period I think $7,500 is a decent target.

Managed Account

I manage money and in one portfolio I only trade credit spreads on $RUT. So far we are up 5.5% for the month of July.

Drunk Russian Tank Driver

Taking Profits

I took profits this morning on a bear put spread on $RUT up 6.5%. I also added a porfolio hedge, I bought TWM and sold calls to hedge the hedge.

$RUT

My prediction is that the $RUT is going to test the 38.2% @ 462.25. We could see a test of this level be September or sooner.

Beta Weighted

I already took profits in MA vertical. This is the income weight portfolio, Monday more profits will be taken off.