More Volatility....More Gold

Sorry I have not updated the blog in about a week, I will try to stay more on top if it.

Well the two worst months of the year are fast approaching, and volatility levels are low and building a base of support. There are a few things that I'm watching to be more prepared for any event that happens this fall. The first is gold, if big spikes in gold are being bought chances are investors are preparing themselves for some volatility. Gold is a great place to be if investors are worried about volatility levels rising. The next thing I stay on top of through out the day is the $VIX and $RVX.

To play a potently rise in gold prices, I have constructed a broken wing butterfly below.

Reversal?

Could we get money coming in to buy this market today? The ES chart above gives some probability to a mid to late day rally 10 points or so.

Its the week all option traders have been waiting for. Currently I'm working on some trade ideas that I will post later today or tomorrow.

SPX Double Calendar

Just going over some spread ideas and thought I would share this double calendar on the $SPX.

Holding Pattern.

Investors are in relax mode till the FOMC releases there statement at 2:15 est. This will produce a holding pattern on major market indices.

The Chart below is of GS, currently I have some buy writes on this stock in my income portfolio and in my managed account. The last four days were getting very hairy and my thoughts were for a test of 150. Now a test back to support would be healthy for the stock and not my positions. I decided to put on some more risk and I know this might sound crazy but I turned my positions into covered combinations. Meaning I own stock with a short call and a short put. Selling puts almost doubled my returns, as for a pull back I think we got it and we will start heading higher the rest of the week.

Beta Weighted

Currently I have on three calendar spreads. I wanted to highlight the beta weighted look at my positions.

Can You Hear Me Now?

Taking some action today in my long term portfolio. I'm selling puts on VZ.

MA

This morning I'm trying to get filled on a MA trade. Its a small trade that is made better with an adjustment. I am bullish on the credit cards, even though I think a pull back in the space is needed. The trade is working below the mid price of the spread, but I will be patient of a better fill.

Calendars are working very well today with some over due weakness, I am currently over all short deltas.

$RUT Idea

Weakness is great, it allows people to add at better prices or sell higher put premium. Since I love selling premium heres my trade.

I love shark week

Crude Oil Prices

Archer Daniels Midland

Today earnings came out on ADM and they missed the streets estimate. My thinking is that we see a pull back for a retest of the 200 day moving average. This is a trade idea only, but I will let you know if I pull the trigger.

Fill....

XOM

Trade idea XOM calendar 70 put Aug/Oct.

Recovery Killer.....??

Super Mario

1000.....

Well we made it, SP's finally hit the 1000 level. The real question is, whats next? Since July the market is up more then 14% with no real pull back or consolidation in price. For a healthy market we need profits to be taken, higher lows to be made and overbought conditions to fade. I think by mid week we could see profits start to come off the table, and people rushing for the exits. That is when I will be loading up for the next surge higher. My S&P target for year end is 1150, but there is still a small percentage that we head to 700.

I have not added any new positions for a while, my income portfolio is up about 3% for the month of Aug and we have barely started.

Pair Idea

SPY

Trade idea, SPY calendar.