Thoughts

Resilient, that’s what the market is, and with earning season started, seems like we be more resilient or will we?

Volatility levels are low and indicating a lot of complacency in the equity market, but if theres so much complacency why aren’t people buying? Volumes are low and I think since volumes are low volatility is going to price in the contentment investors are or might be feeling. If investors were as complacent as volatility was suggesting we would see more volume in the market, people buying hand over fist. We all know that’s not happening, but since the credit crisis there is less money to invest, less funds to trade and less confidence from the retail investor. But from July 2009 till now is when the volumes have really started to decrease, and the market was rocking higher at that point. At some point volume will rise and so will the volatility. I still believe that the market is going to continue a sideways slug fest until volumes increase and volatility returns to its normal mean reverting tendencies. Delta neutral trades will still rule the market, at least for the time being.

I will start posting my technical opinion again once the market starts doing something interesting. Until then I will continue to post my trades and any adjustments that might come.