Today I will start the bread and butter portion of my trading, the credit spread. I will be focusing on the $SPX this morning, and moving on to other instruments later in the week. I feel there are dozens of ways to set a credit spread, some people might sell a certain Delta or sell to receive a specific credit. I will normally sell almost anything 10% below the market and 6% above the market. Another way to do this is to sell below support or above resistance or sell 2 standard deviations below and 1 standard deviation above. The ways to do this are countless, but I stick to the percentage rule because I like consistency, but selling 2 standard deviations below the market is about 10% on the $SPX.
Spread Update Time
On January 7th I set an iron butterfly and received a credit of $32.00, I sold the 1135 and had 45 point wings. Currently this trade is trading at $29.35 that’s a $2.65 profit. Below is the risk profile of my trade.
The S&P has been up five days in a row, and the probability of a pull back is increasing. When we get this pull back I think that it will be a buying opportunity, a lot of people want to get their money working (especially at a lower price) and I think the pull back will be over just as fast as it started.
IV is not doing much, but the $VIX is well below $20 currently at $18.13. With earning season right around the corner, we could see an increase in IV levels and a long straddle on your stock of choice could turn out to be a great trade.
Currently I have an iron butterfly trade on the $SPX, and I received a $32.00 credit. My short strike is 1135 with 45 point wings. I feel like everyone else (which might be a bad thing) with predicting a sideways market and a low volatility market for 2010. Things could change, but at this time a sideways market makes since to me.
Iron Butterfly, $SPX
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