TEC-9

On the $SPX we are building a sideways channel with support at about 1080. If we do not hold support I think we could see 1060-1070 before we head higher. My thoughts about the seasonality of Thanksgiving and Christmas gives me the believe that we will hold the 1080 level. Implied volatility on the $SPX is very low at about 18.15%, with IV levels that low long vega positions could be set. One trade I have on currently is a long strangle on the IWM. The main reason I have this trade on is to capture any move higher in volatility.

The $RUT is still my favorite of the indices, even though its been under performing. My thought is for it to continue to under perform as funds and money managers buy high dividend, big cap all star stocks. Leaving the small cap stocks weak, but some good could come of this. Since we know the $RUT is the lagger we could pair trade the ETF's that track the $SPX and $RUT. If the market is strong the $RUT will not be as strong and if the market is weak the $RUT is going to be the weakest. Long SPY and short IWM as the pair. As for the chart I think the $RUT could stay in a range for the rest of the year, between 550-625. I think that we could build a base till Feb 2010.
Not much to say about the $VIX, but we are in the lower one third of the range. And we could see a pop, but with my thoughts on the seasonality I think that we might be able to go into the teens. As of now 20 is still support and 28-30 is resistance.
The dollar is still weak and is showing no signs of making a recovery. The dollar is in a falling wedge pattern and as been for a while. Right now the dollar is at the top of the range on the downtrend line, and I think that we could see the dollar fall even more to about 74.25.