Friday, October 2, 2009

9.8%

Today is going to be another bad day for the bulls, with the unemployment numbers coming out at 263k 9.8%. The estimates in my opinion were aggressive with a consensus number of 170k. So what do we do now if your sitting on long stock or short put spreads or any other bullish position? There are a few things that I like to look at before I make a decision and I will review and play out both scenarios before I exit my position for a loss or set a hedge to protect my trade.

The first thing that I look at is support levels, if the levels are above or below my position makes a big difference of how I will manage my positions. I also watch the $VIX to indicate if levels are at a buy or sell signal. Right now on the $VIX I'm watching the 29-30 handle to indicate a buy signal and currently we are at 28.27 pre-open after the job numbers. With the job numbers priced in to volatility we might be able to see the $VIX hit that level today.
Currently in my portfolio I have a lot of short put spreads on the $RUT and $SPX. Has you can tell my positions have been getting hit this month. I have not exited any position at this time. To be honest I would like to hold fast today and wait to see what happens next week. My expectations for today are bleak and this is when a trader in my position will show there true colors. But I have been through things like this before and I have learned to be calm and patient on days like this.

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