Bull Flag or Out of Steam Sally?

Is GLD topping out with anticipation of a pullback or is this just a continuation pattern? The characteristic of a flag are showing with volume, the steep quick price trend and the short time the flag has had to form. The problem with this set up is that its about 64% reliable that it will meet its price target. So I don't like to have too much exposure, but I do have a trade idea. Trading a spread is the easiest way to play the flag, because even if it doesn't move I still collect theta, and theta is a good thing! Plus if the dollar continues its path of weakness gold can only go higher. There is no type of adjustment on this spread, more spec then anything else.