Picking market direction is like the sign above, good luck! Since Oct 14th we have been in a very tight range with a high probability of breaking out in either direction. Earnings continue to come out better then expected, the beige book came off slightly bullish, existing home sales bullish and the most important thing is that the trend is up. But all of that stuff gives me doubt about going higher like we have been. Seems like funds, money managers and institutions are selling the news. Selling good news in market tape like this makes me feel like we have went to far to fast and current market price does not reflect true sentiment. As long as the trend is still up I will trade to the up side. But I will be more cautious about my trades and positions, and I will keep my eye on any indication of a turning point in the market.
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